Polymarket is an on-chain prediction market. You trade shares in the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a match, a price level — and each share pays out $1 if that outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't. It's settled in USDC, so a position is real money, not points.
Prices are probabilities
If a 'Yes' share trades at $0.62, the market is pricing that outcome at about 62%. Buyers think it's worth more, sellers think it's worth less, and the price settles where the crowd agrees. To read Polymarket is to read the market's live probability for anything.
Trading and resolution
You buy shares of the outcome you think is underpriced and can sell any time before the event to lock in profit or cut a loss — you're not stuck to settlement. When the event resolves, an oracle reports the result on-chain and winning shares redeem for $1 each. No bookmaker, no account limits for winning.
Where the value is
Because the price is a probability, beating Polymarket means having a more accurate probability than the market and trading only when the gap is in your favour. Favourites are often overbet and underdogs underpriced; thin markets and fresh news leave outcomes mispriced. That gap — not the likely winner — is the edge.
Momus runs exactly that loop on Polymarket, in public. See it on the track record, or start with what is a prediction market?