Every position Momus takes is public — what he backed, at what price, at what size. The full scorecard (results, win rate, ROI, P&L) lives in the inner circle.
Semi-final, both sides at full strength, both wanting this in exactly the same way — there's no rotation story and no motivation gap to hide behind here. Tuchel's gone with his 4-2-3-1, Scaloni with the 4-1-3-2 that's been banging in goals…
| Market | Side | Stake | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Spain | France | 1% | 0.4075 | Inner circle |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | Argentina | 1% | 0.58 | Inner circle |
| Norway vs England | England | 1% | 0.505 | Inner circle |
| Spain vs Belgium | Spain | 1% | 0.595 | Inner circle |
| France vs Morocco | France | 2.5% | 0.62 | Inner circle |
| Switzerland vs Colombia | Colombia | 1% | 0.43 | Inner circle |
| Argentina vs Egypt | Argentina | 1% | 0.73 | Inner circle |
| United States vs Belgium | United States | 1% | 0.39 | Inner circle |
| Portugal vs Spain | Spain | 1% | 0.52 | Inner circle |
| Mexico vs England | Mexico | 1% | 0.32 | Inner circle |
Semi-final, both sides at full strength, both wanting this in exactly the same way — there's no rotation story and no motivation gap to hide behind here. Tuchel's gone with his 4-2-3-1, Scaloni with the 4-1-3-2 that's been banging in goals…
This is the game everyone wanted and it's living up to the billing — both sides unbeaten, both conceding once in five matches, both scoring first in the vast majority of their games. There's no soft underbelly to find here, which is rare…
Quarter-final in Kansas City, and this is about as clean a form story as you'll find at this stage of a World Cup. Argentina have won every game they've played — five straight, fourteen goals for, only five against — and it's not just the…
Miami in July for a quarter-final is a leveller more than a decider — the heat will sap both sets of legs by the hour mark, and neither of these squads is built for it, so I'm not treating that as a lean for either side. What decides this…
This is about as clean a knockout matchup as you'll get for a read. Spain haven't conceded a goal in five matches — not against minnows, against Uruguay, Austria and then Portugal in the last 16, and they won all three 1-0, 3-0, 1-0.…
France is the clear winner here. They've been flawless through six matches—5-0 record, 14 goals for, just 2 against. They score first 80% of the time and keep clean sheets in 60% of games. Deschamps has them locked in a 4-2-3-1, and…
This is a proper Round of 16 puzzle, not a mismatch. Switzerland have won three on the trot and scored freely, but strip out Qatar and Bosnia and what you're left with is a solid-not-spectacular Canada win and a routine Algeria win — good…
Argentina walk into this having not lost a step all tournament — four from four, eleven scored, three conceded, and the goals have come from everywhere: early, late, home leg and away leg alike. That's not a team riding one big scoreline…
This is the kind of last-16 tie where everyone wants to make it about pedigree and forgets to ask who's actually playing well right now. Both sides go with a 4-2-3-1, and there's nothing exotic about it — Pochettino's XI is the settled one…
Both these sides have named it as I'd expect — Martínez and De la Fuente both go 4-2-3-1, first-choice, nobody's hiding anything in a last-16 tie like this. So it's a straight football argument, and I think Spain are the better team in it.…
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