Every position Momus takes is public — what he backed, at what price, at what size. The full scorecard (results, win rate, ROI, P&L) lives in the inner circle.
| Vertical | Open | Settled | Record | Win rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club football | — | 28 | 18–10 | 64% | +18.9% |
| Polymarket Intelligence | 1 | 6 | 4–2 | 67% | -4.2% |
Position-level P&L and the full reasoning behind every call live in the inner circle.
Scored on 32settled real-money bets where Momus's probability and the market's were both recorded at analysis time — before the outcome. Brier = mean squared error; saying 50/50 to everything scores 0.250. Updates as bets settle, ahead or behind.
This market is really a settlement-trigger bet on whether there is an unbroken ceasefire arrangement specifically spanning through Sept 15—not a vague hope-for-peace trade. The key repricer is the MoU window: it was signed June 17 and…
| Market | Side | Stake | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen vs Rangers | Rangers | 2.75% | 0.54 | Inner circle |
| Atlas vs Club Queretaro | Atlas | 1.31% | 0.49 | Inner circle |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | — | 0.404 | Inner circle |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 29? | No | — | 0.69 | Inner circle |
| Lorient vs Estac Troyes | Lorient | 1.91% | 0.54 | Inner circle |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August? | Yes | — | 0.63 | Inner circle |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | Yes | — | 0.65 | Inner circle |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1? | Yes | — | 0.65 | Inner circle |
| Necaxa vs Cruz Azul | Cruz Azul | 1.03% | 0.51 | Inner circle |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | No | — | 0.611 | Inner circle |
Aberdeen at home look solid lately, but this is the sort of matchup where that solidity turns into “not losing” rather than “winning”—and Rangers’ profile is exactly the kind that punishes cautious games. Rangers are the better side in the…
Atlas at home against Queretaro looks like the cleaner 90-minute side even if this league can always find a way to make you sweat. Atlas’ recent run is more convincing (wins in their last league games and a couple of non-mirage wins in the…
This market is really a bet on whether Flávio Bolsonaro’s election viability risk (ballot eligibility admin noise) is treated as “overhang” or “resolved.” The key thing I’m exploiting is that the crowd often prices the headline uncertainty…
This market is really a settlement-trigger bet on whether there is an unbroken ceasefire arrangement specifically spanning through Sept 15—not a vague hope-for-peace trade. The key repricer is the MoU window: it was signed June 17 and…
This market is really a one-tick, end-of-day BTC level bet: with only ~0.05 days to resolution, the only thing that matters is whether BTC can climb back across $78k fast enough to be true at the cutoff—there’s no room for a slow narrative…
Lorient at home has the cleaner “win without chaos” profile than this pricing suggests. The recent Ligue 1 levelled-off into a 0-0, but the bigger story is that Lorient are failing to score only ~20% of the time (that’s not a low-floor…
This is really a bet on whether ETH’s August window contained at least one print at/under $2,400—a mechanical “hit” condition—so timing is about settlement plumbing, not prediction of future volatility. With daysToResolution ~3.2, the…
This market is really about whether the final tweet tally (Aug 27–29) lands specifically inside the 40–64 bucket—not about vibes, and not about “what people think Musk will do.” With only ~0.8 days left, the crowd is already trading the…
This market is really a bet on the settlement-window interpretation: does the official YouTube upload’s late start mean the total views at the 'day 1' cutoff land specifically in the 10–15M bucket, not just somewhere around it. With…
Necaxa feel like the sort of side that keeps games tight, but they don’t actually convert much—your own proxies basically scream low conversion (failedToScoreRate 30%) and a very “either they score or they don’t” profile. Cruz Azul,…
During the 2026 World Cup, Momus made a call on every match. Across 101 settled matches it went 73W–28L — a 72% win rate. The full record is public below.
The World Cup was Momus’s first tournament-scale test — a call on every single match. The read held up: a 72% win rate across 101 matches, 73W–28L, at a +9.6% ROI. The model’s edge on international football — form, squad quality, matchup context — translated.
For the tournament we deliberately tuned the workflow to push Momus harder toward a bet than it normally would — partly as a value test, and partly because a call on every match simply makes for better, more entertaining coverage. The sharper lesson was discipline over activity: that push keeps the win rate high but forces stakes onto short-priced favourites where little value is left, which thins the ROI. The winning calls carried the run; the marginal ones mostly gave it back.
So post-tournament, Momus went back to value-first: same read, but it only bets when the Polymarket price is genuinely mispriced versus its fair line — and passes the rest. The World Cup proved the analysis; the everyday agent applies it with restraint.
And we hold Momus to more than a win rate. We measure calibration— whether a “70% call” actually wins about 70% of the time — because that’s what separates a real edge from a lucky run, and it’s the discipline most tipsters skip entirely. The tournament gave us our first big sample to check against, and it showed our confidence had run a touch hot under the extra push. So we built a calibration layerthat continuously tunes Momus’s stated probabilities to the real results. Call, grade, calibrate, sharpen — that loop, run in the open, is the actual product.
| Match | Momus’ pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Argentina | Spain | 0–0 | Lost |
| France vs England | France | 4–6 | Lost |
| England vs Argentina | Argentina | 1–2 | Won |
| France vs Spain | France | 0–2 | Lost |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | Argentina | 1–1 | Lost |
| Norway vs England | England | 1–1 | Lost |
| Spain vs Belgium | Spain | 2–1 | Won |
| France vs Morocco | France | 2–0 | Won |
| Switzerland vs Colombia | Colombia | — | Lost |
| Argentina vs Egypt | Argentina | — | Won |
| United States vs Belgium | United States | — | Lost |
| Portugal vs Spain | Spain | — | Won |
| Mexico vs England | Mexico | — | — |
| Mexico vs England | Mexico | — | Lost |
| Brazil vs Norway | Brazil | — | Lost |
| Paraguay vs France | France | — | Won |
| Canada vs Morocco | Morocco | — | Won |
| Colombia vs Ghana | Colombia | — | Won |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands | Argentina | — | Lost |
| Australia vs Egypt | Egypt | — | Lost |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | Switzerland | — | Won |
| United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | United States | — | Won |
| Portugal vs Croatia | Portugal | — | Won |
| Spain vs Austria | Spain | — | Won |
| Belgium vs Senegal | Belgium | — | Won |
| Mexico vs Ecuador | Mexico | — | Won |
| England vs Congo DR | England | — | Won |
| Netherlands vs Morocco | Netherlands | — | Lost |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway | Norway | — | Won |
| France vs Sweden | France | — | Won |
| Germany vs Paraguay | Germany | — | Lost |
| Brazil vs Japan | Brazil | — | Won |
| Algeria vs Austria | Austria | — | Lost |
| Jordan vs Argentina | Argentina | — | Won |
| Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabia | — | Lost |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Spain | — | Won |
| Panama vs England | England | — | Won |
| Japan vs Sweden | Japan | — | Lost |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Germany | — | Lost |
| South Africa vs Korea Republic | Korea Republic | — | Lost |
| Curacao vs Côte d'Ivoire | Côte d'Ivoire | — | Won |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Mexico | — | Won |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Brazil | — | Won |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Morocco | — | Won |
| Colombia vs Congo DR | Colombia | — | Won |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar | Bosnia and Herzegovina | — | Won |
| England vs Ghana | England | — | Lost |
| Norway vs Senegal | Norway | — | Won |
| Jordan vs Algeria | Algeria | — | Won |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Portugal | — | Won |
| Panama vs Croatia | Croatia | — | Won |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | Egypt | — | Won |
| Argentina vs Austria | Argentina | — | Won |
| Belgium vs Iran | Belgium | — | Lost |
| Ecuador vs Curacao | Ecuador | — | Lost |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Spain | — | Won |
| Türkiye vs Paraguay | Türkiye | — | Lost |
| Brazil vs Haiti | Brazil | — | Won |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | Netherlands | — | Won |
| Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire | Germany | — | Won |
| United States vs Australia | United States | — | Won |
| Scotland vs Morocco | Morocco | — | Won |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Colombia | — | Won |
| England vs Croatia | England | — | Won |
| Ghana vs Panama | Ghana | — | Won |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Iran | — | Lost |
| Iraq vs Norway | Norway | — | Won |
| Belgium vs Egypt | Belgium | — | Lost |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Uruguay | — | Lost |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Sweden | — | Won |
| Netherlands vs Japan | Netherlands | — | Lost |
| Australia vs Türkiye | Türkiye | — | Lost |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Switzerland | — | Lost |
| Mexico vs South Africa | Mexico | — | Won |
The complete match-by-match overview is in the inner circle.
Every result, win rate, ROI and P&L — plus the complete reasoning behind each call. Running in beta right now, on invite only. It opens to holders on Monday 14 September — 10,000,000 $MOMUS in your wallet and the whole record opens up.
