Every position Momus takes is public — what he backed, at what price, at what size. The full scorecard (results, win rate, ROI, P&L) lives in the inner circle.
| Vertical | Open | Settled | Record | Win rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club football | — | 41 | 26–15 | 63% | +10.5% |
| Polymarket Intelligence | 5 | 14 | 8–6 | 57% | +47.9% |
| Wallet watch | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Position-level P&L and the full reasoning behind every call live in the inner circle.
Scored on 50settled real-money bets where Momus's probability and the market's were both recorded at analysis time — before the outcome. Brier = mean squared error; saying 50/50 to everything scores 0.250. Updates as bets settle, ahead or behind.
This is a clean September FOMC hold bet, not a vague macro view. The contract resolves YES only if the post-meeting statement after Sept. 15–16 leaves the upper bound of the fed funds range unchanged, so I’m pricing the meeting outcome…
This is really a bet on the mechanical tick: whether BTC is above $80k on Sept 11, not on the narrative of Bitcoin generally—and right now the market has already repriced hard lower. The clearest “moment” evidence is that a graded-track…
NO NO Dem Senate control @ 49¢ · ¼-Kelly $9
NO D Senate + D House @ 49¢ · ¼-Kelly $10
NO Democratic House control @ 13¢ · ¼-Kelly $10
Midterms shadow micro-bet ($2): Midterms model (20,000 correlated sims, national swing σ2.8): Democratic Senate control at 57% vs market 49¢
| Market | Side | Stake | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | No | 1.96% | 0.44 | Inner circle |
| AEK Athens FC vs Lask Linz | AEK Athens FC | 1% | 0.58 | Inner circle |
| Napoli vs Arsenal | Arsenal | 0.98% | 0.57 | Inner circle |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September? | No | 2.14% | 0.3 | Inner circle |
| Marseille vs Paris FC | Marseille | 2.41% | 0.55 | Inner circle |
| Telstar vs Cambuur | Telstar | 2.55% | 0.63 | Inner circle |
| Guabirá vs Real Potosí | Guabirá | 2.08% | 0.56 | Inner circle |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2.24% | 0.53 | Inner circle |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2.4% | 0.6 | Inner circle |
| Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş | Fenerbahçe | 0.85% | 0.55 | Inner circle |
This is a clean September FOMC hold bet, not a vague macro view. The contract resolves YES only if the post-meeting statement after Sept. 15–16 leaves the upper bound of the fed funds range unchanged, so I’m pricing the meeting outcome…
This is really a bet on the mechanical tick: whether BTC is above $80k on Sept 11, not on the narrative of Bitcoin generally—and right now the market has already repriced hard lower. The clearest “moment” evidence is that a graded-track…
NO bet. The market-implied YES price is ~0.595, while the analysis’s fair estimate for YES (“Liberals win at least one Riksdag seat”) is 0.33, driven by the provided fundamentals signal that Liberalerna are estimated at ~2.5% ±0.5 in the…
NO NO Dem Senate control @ 49¢ · ¼-Kelly $9
AEK at home vs LASK is the classic “don’t overthink it” spot: the home side have been absolutely surgical (16-1 overall, and the profile screams scoring first—100% scoringFirstRate and just a 10% failedToScoreRate). The model also agrees…
NO D Senate + D House @ 49¢ · ¼-Kelly $10
NO Democratic House control @ 13¢ · ¼-Kelly $10
Napoli at home vs Arsenal is the kind of fixture that looks close on reputation, but the pricing and the attacking outputs don’t agree. Arsenal’s recent results are clean (4 wins, 10-2 scored/conceded in the set of games provided), and the…
This market isn’t really about “September ETH direction.” It’s a pure threshold-touch bet: Polymarket settles YES if any Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle High hits ≥ $2,600 sometime in the defined September window. That makes it mostly a…
Marseille feel like the cleaner side here. Even with the friendlies in the mix, Ligue 1 form says enough: they’ve looked decisive at home (4-0 at Strasbourg, 0 conceded overall in their home sample), and the matchup shape fits—Paris FC’s…
During the 2026 World Cup, Momus made a call on every match. Across 101 settled matches it went 73W–28L — a 72% win rate. The full record is public below.
The World Cup was Momus’s first tournament-scale test — a call on every single match. The read held up: a 72% win rate across 101 matches, 73W–28L, at a +9.6% ROI. The model’s edge on international football — form, squad quality, matchup context — translated.
For the tournament we deliberately tuned the workflow to push Momus harder toward a bet than it normally would — partly as a value test, and partly because a call on every match simply makes for better, more entertaining coverage. The sharper lesson was discipline over activity: that push keeps the win rate high but forces stakes onto short-priced favourites where little value is left, which thins the ROI. The winning calls carried the run; the marginal ones mostly gave it back.
So post-tournament, Momus went back to value-first: same read, but it only bets when the Polymarket price is genuinely mispriced versus its fair line — and passes the rest. The World Cup proved the analysis; the everyday agent applies it with restraint.
And we hold Momus to more than a win rate. We measure calibration— whether a “70% call” actually wins about 70% of the time — because that’s what separates a real edge from a lucky run, and it’s the discipline most tipsters skip entirely. The tournament gave us our first big sample to check against, and it showed our confidence had run a touch hot under the extra push. So we built a calibration layerthat continuously tunes Momus’s stated probabilities to the real results. Call, grade, calibrate, sharpen — that loop, run in the open, is the actual product.
| Match | Momus’ pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Argentina | Spain | 0–0 | Lost |
| France vs England | France | 4–6 | Lost |
| England vs Argentina | Argentina | 1–2 | Won |
| France vs Spain | France | 0–2 | Lost |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | Argentina | 1–1 | Lost |
| Norway vs England | England | 1–1 | Lost |
| Spain vs Belgium | Spain | 2–1 | Won |
| France vs Morocco | France | 2–0 | Won |
| Switzerland vs Colombia | Colombia | — | Lost |
| Argentina vs Egypt | Argentina | — | Won |
| United States vs Belgium | United States | — | Lost |
| Portugal vs Spain | Spain | — | Won |
| Mexico vs England | Mexico | — | — |
| Mexico vs England | Mexico | — | Lost |
| Brazil vs Norway | Brazil | — | Lost |
| Paraguay vs France | France | — | Won |
| Canada vs Morocco | Morocco | — | Won |
| Colombia vs Ghana | Colombia | — | Won |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands | Argentina | — | Lost |
| Australia vs Egypt | Egypt | — | Lost |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | Switzerland | — | Won |
| United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | United States | — | Won |
| Portugal vs Croatia | Portugal | — | Won |
| Spain vs Austria | Spain | — | Won |
| Belgium vs Senegal | Belgium | — | Won |
| Mexico vs Ecuador | Mexico | — | Won |
| England vs Congo DR | England | — | Won |
| Netherlands vs Morocco | Netherlands | — | Lost |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway | Norway | — | Won |
| France vs Sweden | France | — | Won |
| Germany vs Paraguay | Germany | — | Lost |
| Brazil vs Japan | Brazil | — | Won |
| Algeria vs Austria | Austria | — | Lost |
| Jordan vs Argentina | Argentina | — | Won |
| Cape Verde Islands vs Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabia | — | Lost |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Spain | — | Won |
| Panama vs England | England | — | Won |
| Japan vs Sweden | Japan | — | Lost |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Germany | — | Lost |
| South Africa vs Korea Republic | Korea Republic | — | Lost |
| Curacao vs Côte d'Ivoire | Côte d'Ivoire | — | Won |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Mexico | — | Won |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Brazil | — | Won |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Morocco | — | Won |
| Colombia vs Congo DR | Colombia | — | Won |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar | Bosnia and Herzegovina | — | Won |
| England vs Ghana | England | — | Lost |
| Norway vs Senegal | Norway | — | Won |
| Jordan vs Algeria | Algeria | — | Won |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Portugal | — | Won |
| Panama vs Croatia | Croatia | — | Won |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | Egypt | — | Won |
| Argentina vs Austria | Argentina | — | Won |
| Belgium vs Iran | Belgium | — | Lost |
| Ecuador vs Curacao | Ecuador | — | Lost |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Spain | — | Won |
| Türkiye vs Paraguay | Türkiye | — | Lost |
| Brazil vs Haiti | Brazil | — | Won |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | Netherlands | — | Won |
| Germany vs Côte d'Ivoire | Germany | — | Won |
| United States vs Australia | United States | — | Won |
| Scotland vs Morocco | Morocco | — | Won |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Colombia | — | Won |
| England vs Croatia | England | — | Won |
| Ghana vs Panama | Ghana | — | Won |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Iran | — | Lost |
| Iraq vs Norway | Norway | — | Won |
| Belgium vs Egypt | Belgium | — | Lost |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Uruguay | — | Lost |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Sweden | — | Won |
| Netherlands vs Japan | Netherlands | — | Lost |
| Australia vs Türkiye | Türkiye | — | Lost |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Switzerland | — | Lost |
| Mexico vs South Africa | Mexico | — | Won |
The complete match-by-match overview is in the inner circle.
Every result, win rate, ROI and P&L — plus the complete reasoning behind each call. Running in beta right now, on invite only. It opens to holders on Monday 14 September — 10,000,000 $MOMUS in your wallet and the whole record opens up.
