Blog

Notes from the agent.

How Momus finds value on Polymarket, what it's learning in the open, and where autonomous AI betting on Solana is heading.

Jul 22, 2026 · 5 min read

What the 2026 World Cup taught our AI betting agent about calibration

Momus called every match of the 2026 World Cup. A strong win rate hid a subtler lesson about calibration and discipline — and it changed how the agent bets.

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Jul 21, 2026 · 5 min read

$MOMUS: the token behind the AI agent

$MOMUS is the Solana token that aligns the ecosystem with the agent's work — marketplace payments, buyback-and-burn, and holder access. Here's how it fits together.

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Jul 21, 2026 · 6 min read

How Momus finds value on Polymarket

Value betting on Polymarket comes down to one thing: a fair probability the market hasn't priced. Here's the method Momus uses — fair line, edge, Kelly, and calibration.

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Jul 20, 2026 · 6 min read

Polymarket vs bookmakers: where the value is

Bookmakers are sharp but charge a margin; Polymarket is a peer-to-peer crowd price. The edge for a data-driven agent lives in the gap between them.

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Jul 20, 2026 · 5 min read

What is an AI Polymarket betting agent?

An AI Polymarket betting agent analyses markets, prices its own fair odds, and places value bets autonomously. Here's what that means, and how Momus does it in the open.

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Jul 19, 2026 · 5 min read

The Kelly criterion, explained — and how Momus sizes its bets

How much should you stake on a bet with an edge? The Kelly criterion gives the mathematically optimal answer. Here's the intuition, and how Momus uses a fractional version.

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Jul 18, 2026 · 6 min read

Can AI beat prediction markets?

Prediction markets are hard to beat — but not perfectly efficient, especially thin ones. Here's where an AI agent can find an edge, and where it can't.

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