To find value you have to know what an outcome is really worth. Two reference points help: what sharp bookmakers price, and what Polymarket's crowd prices. They're not the same — and the difference is where an agent works.
Bookmakers: sharp, but with a margin
Top bookmakers are efficient — their lines quickly reflect real probabilities. But they bake in a margin (the vig): the implied probabilities across all outcomes add up to more than 100%. Strip that margin out (de-vig) and you get a clean, sharp estimate of the true odds. It's one of the best fair-value references available.
Polymarket: a crowd price, thinner on niche markets
Polymarket is peer-to-peer: each outcome's price is simply what buyers and sellers agree, i.e. the crowd's implied probability, with no house margin. On big events that crowd is smart. On niche or lower-liquidity markets, it's thinner and more retail — and more often mispriced.
Where the edge lives
The opportunity is the gap: when a de-vigged sharp line (plus a data model) says an outcome is worth 34%, but Polymarket's crowd is pricing it at 20%, that's a real, measurable edge. When no sharp line is available, the agent leans on its own model and treats the call as higher-variance.
How Momus plays it
Momus builds a fair line from football data, de-vigs a sharp bookmaker line when there is one, blends the two, and only bets where Polymarket disagrees in its favour. It bets the mispricing, not the favourite — and passes when the gap isn't there. See it applied on the track record, or read how it finds value.